The European Union’s sugar market is poised for a challenging 2025/26 marketing year (October 2025 to September 2026), with a projected decline in production and shifting trade patterns, according to the latest reports from the Expert Group for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets. Sugar Beet Cultivation and Production Forecast: The area sown to sugar beets for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 1.351 million hectares, a 10.6% decrease from the 1.512 million hectares in 2024/25. The decline in cultivated area is expected to result in lower sugar production, forecasted at 15.214 million tonnes for 2025/26, down from 16.563 million tonnes in the previous season. Despite the reduced output, sugar beet yields are expected to rise by approximately 4% above the five-year average, reaching 76.3 tonnes per hectare across the EU, driven by favourable conditions in southern Europe and the Baltics. However, disease pressure, particularly in central and southern Germany, where up to 30% of sugar beet crops may be affected by aphid-transmitted diseases, poses a significant risk to yields. Consumption, Stocks, and Trade Dynamics EU sugar: Consumption is projected to remain relatively stable at 13.9 million tonnes, slightly down from 13.96 million tonnes in 2024/25. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 1.997 million tonnes, with ending stocks slightly higher at 2.041 million tonnes, indicating a balanced supply outlook. Isoglucose production is expected to hold steady at 500,000 tonnes. Imports for 2025/26 are forecasted to increase to 2.23 million tonnes, up from 1.48 million tonnes, with 70% expected to be white sugar. In 2024/25, imports reached 413,000 tonnes, primarily from Ukraine (21%), the UK (18%), Mauritius (17%), and Colombia (13%). Notably, Ukraine’s exports to the EU totaled 90,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2024/25, but new tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) may limit further growth. Exports are projected to decline to 3.5 million tonnes from 4.2 million tonnes, with key destinations including Israel (15%), the UK (12%), and Lebanon (6%). In the EU, agrometeorological conditions are mixed: a persistent water deficit in western Belgium, central France, and eastern Germany threatens spring and summer crops, while excessive rainfall in northern Italy has impacted winter crops. Despite these challenges, positive yield prospects in southern EU countries and the Baltics provide some optimism. Conclusion: The EU sugar sector faces a contraction in 2025/26, driven by reduced beet cultivation and disease pressures, though stable consumption and increased imports should maintain supply. Trade dynamics, particularly with Ukraine, and global price volatility will be critical to monitor as the season unfolds.